Newsletter N°81 - October 2025 

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China Unicom Takes the Lead 

China Unicom has emerged as the frontrunner, already listed as the exclusive eSIM carrier for iPhone Air on Apple's Chinese website. The company quietly launched an "eSIM Service Activation" page in July 2025 and now supports eSIM activation in 25 provinces and cities. Users must visit China Unicom retail stores with valid ID for identity verification and device activation, complying with China's strict user identification requirements. 

 

China Telecom and China Mobile Rush to Catch Up 

China Telecom has confirmed its eSIM mobile services are "fully prepared" and expects to launch after receiving Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) commercial trial approval. The carrier has already begun accepting eSIM applications in four provinces: Guangdong, Sichuan, Anhui, and Jiangxi. 

 

China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator which has over 1 billion mobile subscribers (1.005 billion as of Q2 2025), has also submitted eSIM applications and established reservation portals in its mobile app, stating that service availability will be announced separately after regulatory approval. 

 

Regulatory Hurdles and Security Concerns 

China's cautious approach to eSIM stems from security and regulatory concerns. The technology was suspended in 2022 due to worries about "over-the-air card writing" fraud risks and difficulties in linking user IDs to devices, a requirement under Chinese law. Only iPhone Air model A3518 sold in mainland China will support local eSIM profiles, with international models unable to activate Chinese carrier eSIMs. 

 

Market Implications and Future Outlook 

The eSIM rollout represents a fundamental shift in China's telecommunications ecosystem. According to GSMA projections, global eSIM smartphone connections will reach 1 billion by end-2025 and 6.9 billion by 2030, representing three-quarters of all smartphone connections. However, adoption faces challenges as 73% of elderly users still prefer physical SIM cards. 

 

ABI Research identifies China as the world's largest potential eSIM consumer market by 2030, with Apple expected to dominate initial deployments while facing competition from domestic brands like HONOR, OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo. The transition could intensify operator competition as switching carriers becomes as simple as changing WiFi networks. 

 

The iPhone Air's launch has accelerated China's digital transformation timeline by forcing rapid regulatory adaptation. While challenges remain around security protocols and user acceptance, the coordinated effort by all three major operators suggests China is committed to joining the global shift toward embedded SIM technology, potentially making 2026 the year physical SIM cards begin their decline in the world's second-largest economy.