Newsletter N°82 - November 2025 

At the end of October, the 4th Plenum of the 21st Central Committee of the CCP was held to prepare the 2025–2029 plan (covering economic, social, ideological, and environmental trajectories), which will be formally adopted early next year. It was also an occasion to display Xi Jinping’s firm grip on the committee, as 37 seats out of 205 were prominently shown empty on TV, likely recently purged, marking the largest purge since the Mao era.

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Xinhua News Agency published the full text of the draft five-year plan immediately after the end of the plenum. An explanation written by Xi Jinping himself was also quickly released. Interestingly, no firm figures for GDP growth were mentioned, as trade frictions with the US create a high level of uncertainty. Xi only reiterated the long-term goal of bringing China’s per-capita GDP “on a par with a mid-level developed country” (likely referring to countries such as Spain or Italy, whose per-capita GDP stands around USD 35,000–40,000; for reference, China’s is currently closer to USD 13,500).

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Among the remarks that could shape the overall orientation of the financial and economic measures to come, Xi stated that the country must “address rat-race competition through holistic measures,” a likely reference to the intensifying price competition caused by shrinking domestic demand and resulting oversupply. Furthermore, in the financial sector, the plan states that China will continue to develop the “digital renminbi” as a centralized digital central-bank currency.

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As strategic priority sectors for the upcoming five years, the plan highlights the strengthening of the semiconductor and AI industries. The plenum also designated the space sector as a top priority for the first time, pledging to turn China into a leading space nation within the next five years.

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Measures to ease the demographic crisis were also mentioned (including the reduction of educational burdens on families and the expansion of free education). Last but not least, the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and progressing toward carbon neutrality were reiterated.